Nvidia plans to release three new chips for China @ Reuters

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I have been watching the NVIDIA situation for quite a while seeing things rise and fall with every news and analyst report coming out with speculation on who will win.  the US and their export restrictions or NVIDIA with their endless number of ways to chop up a GPU.

From a technology standpoint, it doesn't matter if your AI chip is 800 series of 200 series, the underlying technology allows these chips to scale indefinitely so while a 800 Series chip would be cost effective, buying four 200 series chips will get you the same thing.

The real question that should be asked is "how will these export bans impact competition?"  For instance, if China cannot get NVIDIA chips they will simply go to a China friendly supplier and either buy from them OR, find another fab that can create clones of these chips.  Not only will that kill a revenue stream BUT, will also create a new competitor who won't be bound by the rules of the governing country.

The new rules put a cap on how much how much computing power a chip can pack into a small size. The rules also include what analysts call a "grey zone" in which the chips might still be allowed to ship to China but will require a license.

In a note to clients,


Wells Fargo analyst Aaron Rakers wrote that all three of Nvidia's reported chips appear to fall below the absolute caps on computing power, but one of them appears to be in the grey zone and will require a license.

It will be interesting to see how this trade war will escalate,  I suspect they are playing a war of attrition though, eventually something will break and that is when the real trouble will start.

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